Dallas, Texas, October 13, 2007 UseCorn.com Ethanol stocks, investment, virtual stock trading is pleased to announce its latest program: an innovative and unique Virtual Stock Trading program that explores the Ethanol industry and other companies relat…

Ron Moss is certainly the elephant in the room this election year, isn’t he?

http://www.ronmoss.org

But does the old popular doomsday theory explain the three billion dollars in new downtown development by our biggest developers?

I don’t think that NY Sun article by the Harvard economics professor layed out a “doomsday theory” at all. Seemed to me sober, objective, and full of factual references. Yes it agrues for a tough love approach, but it’s much more realistic than pessimistic. He’s not optimistic but he didn’t say it’s impossible for Buffalo to ever rebound.

A few questions about your theory:

How much of that 3 billion includes the City Tower (proposed, far from certain – will be great if it happens), the federal court bldg (something taxpayers build in all district court cities from time to time – not to be taken as a sign of private sector bullishness about Buffalo), and the Seneca Casino (welcome, but overall a break even in positive and negative to our ecomony). That does leave some nice positives – Statler, Bass Pro, and some others. But not 3 billion worth.

Does it really explain the current urban migration?

Huh? Urban migration?? Where???
The 700 or so residentail units downtown? Many of whose occupants came from other parts of the city?
You are aware of the Census reports of the drop off 2000-2006 here aren’t you? (Google, if not)
And just yesterday there was this discussion (from LISC-Buffalo, via the FIx Buffalo blog) of our 2006-2007 steep increase in housing vacancies in *many* neighborhoods:
http://fixbuffalo.blogspot.com/2007/10/undeliverable.html#comments

Excerpt from that: “…A cursory analysis of this data reveals by the end of the first quarter of 2007 (Q1 2007) Buffalo had lost 1,692 deliverable addresses since Q1 2006, representing a decrease of 1.4% of the city’s total addresses. During that time, the total number of all addresses fell 527, from 137,292 to 136,765 for a decrease of .4%. After accounting for demolition activity, then, this translates to 1,162 more undeliverable addresses than last year at this time. … The data continues to reflect the uneven market conditions across the city. While some areas experienced a large number of new vacancies, other areas remained stable or experienced an increase in addresses in service. However, as the above statistics show, the aggregate gains are outweighed by the aggregate losses. For example, the district roughly bounded to the west by Fillmore Avenue, Bailey Avenue to the east, to the north by East Delevan and the south by Clinton Street, has shown a significant decline, with some tracts showing a year-over-year decrease in deliverable addresses in excess of 10% and overall vacancy rates of nearly 40%….”

Question: Is the above except from LISC-Buffalo “negativity” or simply a realistic look at facts?

Does it really explain the new wave of optimism and community participation that we are witnessing?

I think optimism about some pockets of Buffalo is appropriate (downtown and Hertel, with Elmwood hanging in there but not growing). And I realize we have to crawl before we walk. But looking at the whole city of Buffalo, many areas are still showing that they are in the midst of sharp declines with no end in sight. As I see it, these many areas of current distress outweigh the pockets of hopefullness by any objective measure – hopeful thinking aside.

Does it really explain how so many average individuals such as myself are optimistic enough to be willing to invest their life’s savings into our downtown?

What’s your definition of “many”, in terms of average individuals investing their “life savings” downtown?

Honestly, I don’t mean to spit in anybody’s cornflakes but I see a lot of disconnect between what you wrote vs. what it seems to me is actually happening in too many parts of the city to list. Not just the East Side. Black Rock, Riverside, Grant/Ferry, Univ Heights especially toward Ken/Bailey, … ok I said too many to list and there I go listing… you get the idea.

Is it possible you’re projecting some welcome successes happening downtown onto the city as a whole?

And where’s any evidence of changes in the private sector business enviroment Upstate? Looks to me that Day One nothing changed, unfortunately. Same ole same ole as far as likelyhood of long term job growth relative to other cities and states.